| February 6, 202312:00 PM - 1:00 PM | IPR Panel on COVID's Impacts on Children and Teens with IPR/SESP Faculty | Panel Discussion on "How Has COVID-19 Impacted Children and Adolescents and How Are They Recovering?" * with
Emma Adam, Edwina S. Tarry Professor of Human Development and Social Policy, Director of the COAST (Contexts of Adolescent Stress and Thriving) Lab, and IPR Fellow
Jonathan Guryan, Lawyer Taylor Professor of Education and Social Policy, IPR Fellow, and Chair of IPR's Program on Education Policy, and
Terri Sabol, Associate Professor of Human Development and Social Policy, Director of the DEEP (Development, Early Education, and Policy) Lab, and IPR Fellow.
Moderated by Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, IPR Director and Margaret Walker Alexander Professor of Human Development and Social Policy.
This panel discussion is part of the Fay Lomax Cook Monday Winter 2023 Colloquium Series.
Please note all colloquia and events this quarter will be held in-person only.
* This presentation will cover work in progress. |
| February 6, 202310:30 AM - 12:00 PM | Kellogg Finance Dept Seminar Series | Johnny Tang (Harvard): "Regulatory Competition in the US Life Insurance Industry" with Michael Blank and Johnny Tang
Abstract: Competition between jurisdictions is a central feature of many public policy problems. I examine the consequences of such competition in the US life insurance industry, where states vie to attract insurers by setting lower capital requirements, but the costs of such actions are borne by consumers in other states. I document empirical evidence of competition between state regulators and its effects on the supply of life insurance. I then develop a quantitative model of the insurance market to evaluate the effects of this competition. I find that competition leads regulators to set lower capital requirements, which increases default risks but also increases consumer surplus by lowering prices. On net, these effects decrease regulators' utility based on regulators' revealed-preference objective functions. |
| February 3, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Eleanor Wiseman (UC Berkeley): "Border Trade and Information Frictions: Evidence from Informal Traders in Kenya".
Abstract:
In low- and middle-income countries, a large share of trade is conducted by small-scale informal traders – mostly women – and is missing from official trade statistics. Using the natural experiment of a border closing, a randomized controlled trial, and panel data collection, I study the role of information frictions in traders’ choices of markets and border crossings at the Kenyan-Ugandan border and the consequences for livelihoods and prices in agriculture markets. First, I show that traders’ choice of markets and routes is sticky. Second, some of this stickiness is driven by limited information about profitable arbitrage opportunities and true (tariff) costs of crossing the border. Third, I build a model incorporating these frictions, which I test using an RCT. I find that giving information on tariff costs and local prices to traders (via a cellphone platform) increases switching across markets and routes, leading to large increases in traders’ profits and significant formalization of trade. Consistent with the model, information provision has general equilibrium effects – specifically, a reduction in consumer prices in agricultural markets. Taken together, the results point to the centrality of information frictions in informal trade and highlight the promise of new information technology to ameliorate them. |
| February 3, 202310:30 AM - 12:00 PM | Kellogg Finance Dept Seminar Series | Spencer Kwon (Harvard): "The Public Option and Optimal Redistribution" with Michael Blank and Johnny Tang
Abstract: Do stock price run-ups predictably revert? We develop a model of financial markets with two types of investors: rational investors and "oversensitive" investors who react excessively to salient public news. The model yields a summary statistic for the degree to which a stock price has overreacted to news: the gap in holdings between oversensitive and rational investors. We compute this measure empirically using quarterly institutional holdings data. We first measure each investor's news sensitivity using their tendency to purchase stocks that have experienced positive earnings announcements. Consistent with our model's premise, we find that news sensitivity is a persistent investor characteristic. We next aggregate our investor-level measure to the stock level to compute the asset-level holdings gap between oversensitive and rational investors. A larger holdings gap forecasts less continuation in stock prices and greater reversals in the long-run, especially for extreme price run-ups. Furthermore, our holdings gap aggregates several distinct channels of overreaction, including both price extrapolation and overreaction to non-price information. |
| February 2, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Damián Vergara (UC Berkeley): "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution".
Abstract: This paper analyzes whether a minimum wage should be used for redistribution on top of taxes and transfers. I characterize optimal redistribution for a government with three policy instruments -- labor income taxes and transfers, corporate income taxes, and a minimum wage -- using an empirically grounded model of the labor market with positive firm profits. A minimum wage can increase social welfare when it increases the average post-tax wages of low-skill labor market participants and when corporate profit incidence is large. When chosen together with taxes, the minimum wage can help the government redistribute efficiently to low-skill workers by preventing firms from capturing low-wage income subsidies such as the EITC and from enjoying high profits that cannot be redistributed via corporate taxes due to capital mobility in unaffected industries. Event studies show that the average US state-level minimum wage reform over the last two decades increased average post-tax wages of low-skilled labor market participants and reduced corporate profits in affected industries, namely low-skill labor-intensive services. A sufficient statistics analysis implies that US minimum wages typically remain below their optimum under the current tax and transfer system. |
| February 2, 202312:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Sun Yong Kim
Title: The Dollar, US Fiscal Capacity and the US Safety Puzzle
Contact for Zoom link |
| February 2, 202311:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Laura Montenbruck
Title: Public Goods, Taxation, and Political Participation: A Field Experiment in Freetown, Sierra Leone
Abstract: “I use a large-scale randomized controlled trial among property owners and tenants in Freetown, Sierra Leone to investigate the link between public service provision and taxation. In an intervention over the phone, I provide individuals with information on local level public service provision. To understand the role of citizens’ preferences, I vary the content of the information message, notifying respondents about service improvements related to either their most (match) or their least (mismatch) preferred public service. Using a combination of self-reported endline data and administrative tax data, I analyse how this information affects tax compliance. Preliminary findings show that treated and untreated individuals have similar attitudes towards taxation, but treated individuals are significantly more compliant than the control group."
Contact for Zoom link |
| February 1, 20231:30 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Department Flyout Seminar | Virginia Minni (LSE): "Making the Invisible Hand Visible: Managers and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs"
Abstract: Why do managers matter for firm performance? This paper provides evidence of the critical role of managers in matching workers to jobs within the firm using the universe of personnel records from a large multinational firm. The data covers200,000 white-collar workers and 30,000 managers over 10 years in 100 countries. I identify good managers as the top 30% by their speed of promotion and lever-age exogenous variation induced by the rotation of managers across teams. I find that good managers cause workers to reallocate within the firm through lateral and vertical transfers. This leads to large and persistent gains in workers’ career progression and productivity. Seven years after the manager transition, workers earn 30% more and perform better on objective performance measures. In terms of aggregate firm productivity, doubling the share of good managers would increase output per worker by 61% at the establishment level. My results imply that the visible hands of managers match workers’ specific skills to specialized jobs, leading to an improvement in the productivity of existing workers that outlasts the managers’ time at the firm. |
| January 31, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Awa Ambra Seck (Harvard): "En Route: The French Colonial Army, Emigration and Development in Morocco".
Abstract: Between 1830 and 1962, six million Africans living under colonial rule served in the French army. Most were deployed internationally to maintain order or fight French wars. After independence, all were repatriated and granted the right to move to France. We estimate the effect of military deployment on the soldiers' long-term outcomes, as well as on their communities of origin, using historical data on Moroccan soldiers, and exploiting the arbitrary assignment of troops to international locations. We show that, within a municipality, cohorts with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France were more likely to relocate there after independence. In contrast, deployment to other locations did not affect emigration. Consistent with the establishment of emigration networks, we find that the effects persist for decades after independence. Furthermore, communities with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France have experienced better economic outcomes and a shift from the agricultural to the service sector today. These results highlight the role that colonial rule played in shaping emigration networks from the colonies and in contributing to persistent changes in their patterns of economic development. |
| January 30, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Giacomo Lanzani (MIT): "Dynamic Concern for Misspecification".
Abstract: We consider an agent who posits a set of probabilistic models for the payoffrelevant outcomes. The agent has a prior over this set but fears the actual model is omitted and hedges against this possibility. The concern for misspecification is endogenous: If a model explains the previous observations well, the concern attenuates. We show that different static preferences under uncertainty (subjective expected utility, maxmin, robust control) arise in the long run, depending on how quickly the agent becomes unsatisfied with unexplained evidence and whether they are misspecified. The misspecification concern’s endogeneity naturally induces behavior cycles, and we characterize the limit action frequency. This model is consistent with the empirical evidence on monetary policy cycles and choices in the face of complex tax schedules. Finally, we axiomatize in terms of observable choices this decision criterion and how quickly the agent adjusts their misspecification concern. |
| January 27, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Xincheng Qiu (UPenn): "Vacant Jobs".
Abstract: Canonical theories of frictional labor markets conceptualize separations as job destruction and vacancies as job creation. Yet, workers exiting the labor force hence vacating their positions, dubbed the vacating channel, is an empirically important source of both employment outflows and vacancy inflows. It is absent in standard models that treat
vacancies as recruiting efforts, while I document facts on vacancy dynamics that point to an alternative view of vacancies as part of the job life cycle. I develop a model that incorporates the vacating channel and quantitatively replicates properties of labor market flows. It brings novel insights into the business cycle theory of unemployment: Procyclical employment-to-nonparticipation quits contribute to vacancy fluctuations due to the vacating channel, accounting for about one-third of unemployment fluctuations. Understanding the source of vacancies also has important policy implications: While creating a new job as an investment activity is responsive to the interest rate, reposting a vacated position is not. This sheds new light on the possibility of a “soft landing”—raising interest rates without causing high unemployment—during the “Great Resignation,” a period of elevated vacating. |
| January 26, 202312:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Diego Huerta
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| January 26, 202311:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Radhika Ramakrishnan
Title: Impacts of Health Insurance Acquisition for Immigrants
Abstract: "Legislation in the 1990s restricted immigrant access to benefits from the social safety net. Later legislation, in 2009, allowed states to elect into expanded access to Medicaid and CHIP for immigrants. I use this variation to examine the impacts of health insurance acquisition for immigrants. Preliminary descriptive evidence indicates substantial heterogeneity in uptake. This heterogeneity underlies average increased uptake associated with expanded eligibility." |
| January 25, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Garima Sharma (MIT): "Monopsony and Gender".
Abstract: I investigate the role of labor market power in driving the gender wage gap in Brazil. Exploiting firm-level shocks induced by the end of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement, I show that women are substantially less likely than men to separate from their employer following a wage cut. The ensuing gender difference in monopsony power would explain 42% of the gender wage gap (an 18pp difference). To probe the source of higher monopsony power over women, I develop and estimate a discrete choice model featuring two explanations: women strongly prefer their specific employer (horizontal difference) or have fewer good employers (vertical difference). Of the 18pp gender gap due to monopsony, I estimate 10pp as attributable to the former and 8pp to the concentration of good jobs for women in the textile sector. This concentration in turn reflects amenities/disamenities present in different sectors and not gender-specific comparative advantage: specifically, eliminating gender gaps in productivity across sectors erodes 4pp of the monopsony gender gap whereas leveling amenities entirely erodes the 8pp gap due to concentration. My findings demonstrate that although the textile industry provides women desirable jobs, this desirability confers its employers with higher monopsony power. By contrast, desirable jobs for men are not similarly concentrated. |
| January 25, 20231:30 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Department Flyout Seminar | Cristóbal Otero (UC Berkeley): "Managers and Public Hospital Performance" with Pablo Muñoz
Abstract: We study whether, and how, managers can increase government productivity in the context of public health provision. Using novel data from public hospitals in Chile, we document that top managers (CEOs) account for a significant amount of variation in hospital mortality. We then use a staggered difference-in-differences design, and show that a reform which introduced a competitive selection system for recruiting CEOs in public hospitals reduced hospital mortality by approximately 8%. The effect is not explained by a change in patient composition and is robust to several alternative explanations. The financial incentives included in the reform—performance pay and higher wages—do not explain our findings. Instead, we show that the policy changed the pool of CEOs by displacing older doctors with no management training in favor of younger CEOs who had studied management. The mortality effects were driven by hospitals in which the new CEOs had managerial qualifications. These CEOs improved operating room efficiency and reduced staff turnover. |
| January 24, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Patrick Kennedy (UC Berkeley): "The Efficiency-Equity Tradeoff of the Corporate Income Tax: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" with Christine Dobridge, Paul Landefeld, and Jake Mortenson.
Abstract: This paper studies the effects of an historically large federal corporate income tax cut on U.S. firms and workers, leveraging quasi-experimental policy variation from the 2017 law known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. To identify causal effects, we use employer-employee matched federal tax records and an event study design comparing similarly-sized firms in the same industry that faced divergent tax changes due to their pre-existing legal status. Reductions in marginal income tax rates cause increases in sales, profits, investment, and employment, with responses driven by firms in capital-intensive industries. Workers’ earnings gains are concentrated in executive pay and in the top 10% of the within-firm income distribution, while workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution see no change in earnings. Interpreted through the lens of a stylized model, our estimates imply that a $1 marginal reduction in corporate tax revenue generates an additional $0.10 in output, with 78% of gains flowing to the top 10% of the income distribution. |
| January 23, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Michael Sullivan (Yale): "Price controls in a multi-sided market"
Abstract: This paper evaluates caps on the commissions that food delivery platforms (e.g., DoorDash) charge to restaurants. Commission caps benefit restaurants that partner with platforms, all else equal. This may entice restaurants to join platforms, thereby benefitting consumers who value variety in platforms’ restaurant listings. A reduction in platform commissions may also lead restaurants to lower their prices, further benefitting consumers. But commission caps may lead platforms to raise their consumer fees, thereby reducing consumer ordering on platforms and consequently platforms’ value to restaurants. The net effects of caps on restaurant and consumer welfare are thus uncertain. To estimate caps’ effects, I assemble data on consumer restaurant orders, restaurants’ platform adoption, and platform fees. An initial analysis of the data suggests that caps raise platforms’ consumer fees, reduce consumer ordering on platforms, and lead restaurants to join platforms. To analyze these effects and their welfare implications, I develop a model of platform pricing, restaurant pricing, platform adoption by restaurants, and consumer ordering. Counterfactual simulations using the estimated model imply that commission caps bolster restaurant profits, but they do so at the expense of consumers and platforms. I estimate a total welfare reduction of caps equal to 6.2% of participant surplus from platforms. |
| January 20, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Thi Mai Anh Nguyen (MIT): "Long-Term Relationships and the Spot Market: Evidence from US Trucking" (with Adam Harris)
Abstract: Long-term informal relationships play an important role in the economy, capitalizing on match-specific efficiency gains and mitigating incentive problems. However, the prevalence of long-term relationships can also lead to thinner, less efficient spot markets. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the market-level tradeoff between long-term relationships and the spot market. We apply this framework to an economically important setting—the US truckload freight industry—exploiting detailed transaction-level data for estimation. At the relationship level, we find that long-term relationships have large intrinsic benefits over spot transactions. At the market level, we find a strong link between the thickness and efficiency of the spot market. Overall, the current institution performs fairly well against our first-best benchmarks, achieving 44% of the relationship-level first-best surplus and even more of the market-level first-best surplus. The findings motivate two counterfactuals: (i) a centralized spot market for optimal spot market efficiency and (ii) index pricing for optimal gains from individual long-term relationships. The former results in substantial welfare loss, and the latter leads to welfare gains during periods of high demand. |
| January 20, 20231:30 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Department Flyout Seminar | Agathe Pernoud (Stanford): "How Competition Shapes Information in Auctions" with Simon Gleyze
Abstract: We consider auctions where buyers can acquire costly information about their valuations and those of others, and investigate how competition between buyers shapes their learning incentives. In equilibrium, buyers find it cost-efficient to acquire some information about their competitors so as to only learn their valuations when they have a fair chance of winning. We show that such learning incentives make competition between buyers less effective: losing buyers often fail to learn their valuations precisely and, as a result, compete less aggressively for the good. This depresses revenue, which remains bounded away from what the standard model with exogenous information predicts, even when information costs are negligible. It also undermines price discovery. Finally, we examine the implications for auction design. First, setting an optimal reserve price is more valuable than attracting an extra buyer, which contrasts with the seminal result of Bulow and Klemperer (1996). Second, the seller can incentivize buyers to learn their valuations, hence restoring effective competition, by maintaining uncertainty over the set of auction participants. |
| January 19, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Senior Job Talk | Kory Kroft (University of Toronto)
Job Talk: Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry (joint with Yao Luo, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler)
Contact for Zoom link |
| January 19, 202311:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Johanna Rayl
Title: How do emergency price controls affect consumers and producers? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Natural Disasters
Abstract: This paper studies policies that ban firms from raising prices, or ``price gouging", on critical goods during public emergencies. While such laws exist in 37 US states, little evidence weighs their potential benefits -- equity and the regulation of disaster-induced monopoly power -- against their potential costs -- exacerbating shortages and encouraging hoarding. We show in a stylized graphical framework that this tradeoff hinges on the slope of the supply curve and the amount of disaster-induced retailer market power. We empirically examine these features of the US retail market for natural disaster supplies, as well as the extent of price gouging. Demand for supplies spikes sharply in the first weeks of natural disasters. While average price increases are small to none, a minority of stores engage in large price hikes. We find evidence that only a subset of these violations are enforced. Meanwhile, shortages increase in probability during early disaster weeks. On the supply side, the same set of disasters lead to small increases in transportation costs via trucking, and no increases in wholesale prices. |
| January 16, 202312:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: TBA
Title: TBA |
| January 13, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Joel Flynn (MIT): "The Macroeconomics of Narratives" with Karthik Sastry
Abstract: We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, or beliefs about the economy that affect decisions and spread contagiously. Empirically, we use natural-language-processing methods to measure textual proxies for narratives in US public firms’ end-of-year reports (Forms 10-K). We find that: (i) firms’ hiring decisions respond strongly to narratives, (ii) narratives spread contagiously among firms, and (iii) this spread is responsive to macroeconomic conditions. To understand the macroeconomic implications of these forces, we embed a contagious optimistic narrative in a business-cycle model. We characterize, in terms of the decision-relevance and contagiousness of narratives, when the unique equilibrium features: (i) non-fundamental business cycles, (ii) non-linear belief dynamics (narratives “going viral”) that generate multiple stable steady states (hysteresis), and (iii) the coexistence of hump-shaped responses to small shocks with regime-shifting behavior in response to large shocks. Our empirical estimates discipline both the static, general equilibrium effect of narratives on output and their dynamics. In the calibrated model, we find that contagious optimism explains 32% and 18% of the output reductions over the early 2000s recession and Great Recession, respectively, as well as 19% of the unconditional variance in output. We find that overall optimism is not sufficiently contagious to generate hysteresis, but other, more granular narratives are. |
| January 12, 202312:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Diego Cid
Title: TBA |
| January 12, 202311:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: Valentyn Litvin
Title: Tried and True or New and Improved?: Using Clinical Guidelines to Balance Innovation and Expertise
Abstract: "This paper theoretically examines how clinical guidelines should balance treatment effectiveness and provider expertise. A standard goal of evidence-based clinical guidelines is to inform clinicians and encourage them to use the most effective (or cost-effective) treatments for a group of patients. Despite well-documented learning-by-doing effects in clinical practice, there is limited research about how guidelines should account for their influence on clinician expertise. I explore this question theoretically with a model with a social planner choosing a guideline policy for a group of clinicians who learn by doing and treat a heterogeneous patient population. I show that even in an idealized setting with perfect knowledge and aligned cost preferences, clinical guidelines serve a role as skill management policies. I characterize the social planner's optimal policy as a function of both relative treatment effectiveness and clinicians' learning curves. A key finding is that in some settings, it is optimal for guidelines to recommend a treatment that is less effective on average but is well-practiced. This finding suggests that the prevailing approach of recommending the treatments with superior clinical trial results may harm patient outcomes."
Reach out for Zoom link. |
| January 9, 20233:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar | Rahul Singh (MIT): "Causal inference with corrupted data: Measurement error, missing values, discretization, and differential privacy" (with Anish Agarwal)
Abstract: The US Census Bureau will deliberately corrupt data sets derived from the 2020 US Census in an effort to maintain privacy, suggesting a painful trade-off between the privacy of respondents and the precision of economic analysis. To investigate whether this trade-off is inevitable, we formulate a semiparametric model of causal inference with high dimensional corrupted data. We propose a procedure for data cleaning, estimation, and inference with data cleaning-adjusted confidence intervals. We prove consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency by finite sample arguments, with a rate of n−1/2 for semiparametric estimands that degrades gracefully for nonparametric estimands. Our key assumption is that the true covariates are approximately low rank, which we interpret as approximate repeated measurements and validate in the Census. In our analysis, we provide nonasymptotic theoretical contributions to matrix completion, statistical learning, and semiparametric statistics. Calibrated simulations verify the coverage of our data cleaning-adjusted confidence intervals and demonstrate the relevance of our results for 2020 Census data. |
| January 4, 20239:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Job Market Seminar | Tianyi Peng (MIT): Experimentation Platforms and Learning Treatment Effects in Panels |
| December 19, 20229:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Job Market Seminar | Mingxi Xhu (Stanford University): How a Small Amount of Data Sharing Benefits Distributed Optimization and Learning |
| December 16, 20229:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Job Market Seminar | Sophie Yu (Duke University): Efficient Network Alignment at Otter's Tree-counting Threshold via Counting Chandeliers |
| December 14, 20229:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Job Market Seminar | Yunzong Xu (MIT): Bridging Online and Offline Learning Towards Improved Data-Driven Decision Making |
| December 12, 20229:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Job Market Seminar | Arielle Anderer (University of Pennsylvania): The Value of Logistic Flexibility in E-commerce |
| December 9, 20229:30 AM - 10:30 AM | Kellogg School of Management: Research Seminar | Lin Fan (Stanford University): The Fragility of Optimized Bandit Algorithms |
| December 8, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker TBA Title TBA |
| December 8, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Sarah Deschênes (Northwestern) - Expanding schooling access in Nigeria: impact on marital outcomes
Abstract- The paper uses the Universal Primary Education Program (UPE) implemented in Nigeria in 1976 to investigate the effect of wife and husband’s education on women’s empowerment. We combine regional disparities in baseline levels of enrollment with the timing of the program and the traditionally high age difference between partners to disentangle the impact of wife’s education from husband’s education. We find that the UPE had heterogeneous effects in the South compared to the North of Nigeria. In the South, women achieve more gender-equal marriages by delaying marriage by 1.23 years, and by reducing the age gap with their husband by 2 years. These women also maintain a stable education gap with their husband. In the North, treated women also marry more educated men but the age gap remains unchanged. In the South, women are better off as the UPE decreases women’s tolerance of domestic violence and increases their say in decision-making while in the North, we find no improvement along these dimensions. The results suggest that large scale policies may unlock improvements in women’s empowerment through the marriage market if they flatten the age hierarchy between spouses. |
| December 7, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Cavit Baran (Northwestern University): “Poisoned Fruits: Human Capital, Health, and Economic Effects of Agricultural Pesticides in the United States” |
| December 6, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Jeremy Fox (Rice University): "Estimating Matching Games with Profit and Price Data" with Amir Kazempour and Xun Tang |
| December 6, 20222:00 PM - 3:30 PM | Senior Job Talk | Supreet Kaur (UC Berkeley): "The Social Tax: Redistributive Pressure and Labor Supply" |
| December 5, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Paul Grieco (Penn State): "Conformant and Efficient Estimation of Discrete Choice Demand Models" |
| December 2, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Carlo Medici (Northwestern University): Historical Immigration and the Labor Movement |
| December 1, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Fergal Hanks (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| December 1, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Jimmy Lee (Northwestern University) - Evaluating a System of Agricultural Extension around Schools in Liberia
Abstract: Developing countries often face intertwined challenges in agricultural extension, rural education, and youth empowerment. I conduct a two-year randomized evaluation of a school-based agricultural education program in Liberia that leverages existing resources to tackle the challenges – schools, teachers, and students for agricultural extension; school gardens and student agricultural projects for promoting experiential learning in science; and extra-curricular activities for promoting vocational and life skills. This talk will focus on results from the midline survey on the randomized evaluation, together with results from complementary sub-treatments that amplify the effects of the program. |
| December 1, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Title: TBA
Speaker: TBA |
| November 30, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Claudia Olivetti (Dartmouth College): "Structural Transformation over 150 years of Women’s and Men’s Work” joint with Rachel L. Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo
Abstract: We build a consistent measure of male and female work for the US for the period 1880-2019 – encompassing intensive and extensive margins – by combining data from the US Census and several early sources. The resulting measure of hours, including paid work as well as unpaid work in family businesses, displays an asymmetric U-shape for women, with a modest decline up to mid-20th century and a sustained rise afterwards. For men, hours fall throughout the sample period. We empirically and theoretically relate these trends to the process of structural transformation, and namely the reallocation of labour across agriculture, manufacturing and services, and the marketization of home production. We propose a multisector model of the economy with uneven productivity growth, income effects, and consumption complementarity across sectoral outputs. At early stages of development, declining agriculture leads to rising services (both in the market and the home) and leisure, implying a fall in market work for both genders. At later stages of development, structural transformation reallocates labor from manufacturing into services, and a large service economy implies an important marketization process, progressively reallocating work from home to market services. Given gender comparative advantages, the first channel is more relevant for men, implying a decrease in male hours, and the second channel is more relevant for women, implying an increase in female hours. |
| November 30, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Kellogg Operations Department: Research Seminar Series | Adam Elmachtoub (Columbia University): "Simple and Fair Pricing Strategies" |
| November 30, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Christopher Sims (Northwestern University): "(De-)Industrialization and Trade: Evidence from the Danish Sound Dues" |
| November 30, 202211:00 AM - 12:15 PM | Kellogg Finance Department: Research Seminar Series | Juliane Begenau (Stanford University): Title TBA |
| November 29, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Anna Bykhovskaya (Duke) - "Cointegration in high-dimensional VARs" |
| November 29, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Manasi Deshpande (UChicago): "The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety
Net on Human Capital Investment" with Rebecca Dizon-Ross
Abstract: How does the expectation of government benefits in adulthood affect human capital investments in childhood? In a simple economic model, expected future benefits decrease childhood human capital investments through income and substitution effects. Experts we surveyed also predicted a large decrease. We test this prediction by conducting a randomized controlled trial with families of children who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a cash welfare program for children and adults with disabilities. The vast majority of parents whose children receive SSI overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We provide randomly-selected families with information on the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood and use this randomized information shock to identify the effect of expectations about future benefits. We find that reducing the expectation that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children's human capital. This zero effect is precisely estimated, and we strongly reject the null hypothesis from our expert survey. Potential explanations for the zero effect include parents increasing their own work effort, financial or time constraints preventing further investment, and non-financial goals influencing investment decisions. |
| November 29, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Senior Job Talk/Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Manasi Deshpande (UChicago): "The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety
Net on Human Capital Investment" with Rebecca Dizon-Ross
Abstract: How does the expectation of government benefits in adulthood affect human capital investments in childhood? In a simple economic model, expected future benefits decrease childhood human capital investments through income and substitution effects. Experts we surveyed also predicted a large decrease. We test this prediction by conducting a randomized controlled trial with families of children who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a cash welfare program for children and adults with disabilities. The vast majority of parents whose children receive SSI overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We provide randomly-selected families with information on the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood and use this randomized information shock to identify the effect of expectations about future benefits. We find that reducing the expectation that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children's human capital. This zero effect is precisely estimated, and we strongly reject the null hypothesis from our expert survey. Potential explanations for the zero effect include parents increasing their own work effort, financial or time constraints preventing further investment, and non-financial goals influencing investment decisions. |
| November 29, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Kellogg Finance Department: Bag Lunch Seminar Series | Zhengyang Jiang (Kellogg School of Management): Title TBA |
| November 28, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Michael Dinerstein (UChicago): "Teacher Labor Market Equilibrium and the Distribution of Student Achievement" |
| November 28, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Andrei Iakovlev (Northwestern University): "Puppy Giveaway Design" |
| November 21, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Fernando Alvarez (UChicago): "Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Fintech Adoption" with Davide Argente, Francesco Lippi, Esteban Mendez, and Diana Van Patten
Abstract: "This paper develops a dynamic model of technology adoption featuring a network effect, in which the benefits for users increase with the number of adopters. We argue that such an effect is an inherent feature of several technologies, such as means of payments. We show that network effects give rise to multiple equilibrium paths, multiple steady states, and suboptimal allocations. The model generates slow adoption, as individuals optimally wait for others to adopt before doing so. We apply the theory to the adoption of SINPE, an electronic means of payment developed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Transaction-level data on the use of SINPE and a battery of administrative data sets on
the network structure allow us to document sizable network effects exploiting plausibly exogenous variation. A calibrated version of the model shows that the optimal subsidy pushes the economy to universal adoption." |
| November 21, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Gabriel Jardanovski (Northwestern University): "Carbon Leakage" |
| November 18, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Matteo Ruzzante (Northwestern University): "Local Industrial Production, Input Availability, and Technology Adoption" |
| November 18, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Cavit Baran (Northwestern Economics): Poisoned Fruits: Human Capital, Health, and Economic Effects of Agricultural Pesticides in the United State |
| November 17, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Pascaline Dupas (Stanford): Title TBA
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| November 17, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Matias Bayas-Erazo (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| November 17, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ritwika Sen (Northestern University) - Title TBA |
| November 17, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Roman Rivera (Columbia University): Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcome
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of pretrial electronic monitoring (EM) as an alternative to both pretrial release and pretrial detention (jail) in Cook County, Illinois. EM often involves a defendant wearing an electronic ankle bracelet that tracks their movement and aims to deter pretrial misconduct. Using the quasi-random assignment of bond court judges, I estimate the effect of EM versus release and EM versus detention on pretrial misconduct, case outcomes, and future recidivism. I develop a novel method for the semiparametric estimation of marginal treatment effects in ordered choice environments, with which I construct relevant treatment effects. Relative to release, EM increases new cases pretrial due to bond violations while reducing new cases for low-level crimes and failures to appear in court. Relative to detention, EM increases low-level pretrial misconduct but improves defendant case outcomes and reduces cost-weighted future recidivism. Finally, I bound EM's crime reduction effect. I find that EM is likely an adequate substitute for pretrial detention. However, it is not clear that EM prevents enough high-cost crime to justify its use relative to release, particularly for defendants who are more likely to be released. |
| November 16, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Felipe Gonzalez (UC Berkley): "Public health policies and political support in turbulent times: Historical evidence from Salvador Allende's milk program" (joint with Mounu Prem) |
| November 16, 20222:00 PM - 3:30 PM | Senior Job Talk | Nicolas Ryan (Yale University): "Can Pollution Markets Work in Developing Countries?
Experimental Evidence from India" |
| November 16, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Kellogg Operations Department: Research Seminar Series | Jing Dong (Columbia University): "Optimal routing under demand surge: the value of future arrival rate information" |
| November 16, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Shuyan Huang (Northwestern University): "Panel Data Estimation with the Recurrent
Neural Network: Estimation and Inference for Policy Relevant Derivative Effects" |
| November 16, 202211:00 AM - 12:15 PM | Kellogg Finance Department: Research Seminar Series | Andreas Neuhierl (Washington University in Saint Louis): "Structural Deep Learning in Conditional Asset Pricing" |
| November 15, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Vincent Boucher (Université Laval) - "Toward a General Theory of Peer Effects" with Michelle Rendall, Philip Uschev, and Yves Zenou |
| November 15, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Desmond Ang (Harvard Kennedy School): "Black Veterans and Civil Rights after World War I" with Sahil Chinoy
Abstract: In 1919, hundreds of thousands of Black soldiers returned home to face widespread racial violence and discrimination. Leveraging the World War I draft lottery and millions of newly-digitized records, we document the pioneering role that these individuals played in advancing civil rights over the following decades. While military service provided little causal economic benefit, Black men who were randomly inducted into the U.S. Army were significantly more likely to take part in the ascendant NAACP. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that effects were largest for men from higher-skilled occupations and those who served in combat roles. Detailed analysis of the first African-American officer candidate class similarly reveals that commissioned officers were more likely to become civil rights leaders and other prominent members of civil society. |
| November 15, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Kellogg Finance Department: Bag Lunch Seminar Series | Ian Dew-Becker (Kellogg School of Management): Title TBA |
| November 14, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Kevin Williams (Yale): "Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets" |
| November 14, 202212:15 PM - 1:30 PM | Kellogg School of Management: Political Economy Seminar Series | Ernesto Dal Bo (UC Berkeley): "From Rivals to Partners: Capital, State Coercion, and the Rise of Modern Economic Growth"with Lukas Leucht and Noam Yuchtman
Abstract: The conventional wisdom on the source of economic growth emphasizes inclusive institutions and technical change: constraints on state elites, which allow open access to political and economic power, guarantee secure property rights and investment returns. Yet, in many contexts where economic growth has emerged, we see the partnership of private enterprise and powerful, coercive (often nondemocratic) states: from Industrial Revolution Britain, to the post-WWII Asian economic tigers, to post-Mao China. Focusing on the emergence of modern growth in Britain, we propose a model of a partnership between coercive states and private actors: merchants acquire and deploy commercial skills and the state fights wars that expand trade opportunities for merchants. The source of aligned incentives is the joint surplus made possible when, in a mercantilist world, the state projects violence outward, to create opportunities for private profit. A successful partnership is not inevitable, however: a significant complementarity between coercion and trade is required, as is the development of a fiscal capacity that will act as a technology to share the surplus. Empirically, we use secondary evidence as well as original archival research, to substantiate some of the key conditions for a partnership equilibrium in Britain: a strong commercial orientation in economic activity and in foreign conflict, i.e.,a strong government who fights wars that create market access as commercial elites expand trade, and substantial fiscal returns from war-induced commerce. |
| November 14, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Felix Tintelnot (UChicago): "Foreign Demand Shocks to Production Networks: Firm Responses and Worker Impacts"
Abstract: We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. Our estimates of firm responses suggest that Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor. Motivated and guided by these findings, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model that allows us to study how idiosyncratic and aggregate changes in foreign demand propagate through a small open economy and affect firms and workers. Our results suggest that the way the labor market is typically modeled in existing research on foreign demand shocks—with no fixed costs and perfectly elastic labor supply—would grossly understate the decline in real wages due to an increase in foreign tariffs. |
| November 14, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Federico Crippa (Northwestern University): "Manipulation Test in Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design" |
| November 11, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Radhika Ramakrishnan (Northwestern University): "The Second Specialist. How Does Vertical Integration Affect Specialist Switching?" |
| November 11, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Cara Ebert (RWI Essen) with Leander Heldring (Northwestern University): Wealth Inequality and Social Mobility in Industrializing England |
| November 11, 202210:30 AM - 4:45 PM | IDEAL Challenges in Data Economics Workshop | The IDEAL workshop series brings in experts on topics related to the foundations of data science to present their perspective and research on a common theme. Chicago area researchers with an interest in the foundations of data science. The workshop is part of the IDEAL Fall 2022 Special Quarter on Data Economics.
This workshop is organized by Nicolas Lambert (Univ. of Southern California), Annie Liang (Northwestern Univ.), and Haifeng Xu (UChicago). |
| November 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Lakshmi Iyer (Notre Dame): "The Importance of Being Local: Administrative Decentralization and Human Development" with Latika Chaudhary
Abstract: We examine the human development consequences of transferring responsibility for public service provision to local governments in India, using state-level variation in the timing of administrative decentralization reforms. We find that devolution of the responsibility for health functions from state to local governments, without concomitant authority over personnel or taxation, results in a worsening of neonatal, infant and under-5 child mortality. States that conducted such partial devolution exhibit worse indicators of public health provision, as well as lower rates of primary school completion. Our results cannot be attributed to differential pre-trends, omitted variables bias, or heterogeneous treatment effects. |
| November 10, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Kwok Yan Chiu (Northwestern University): Rational Inattention and Household Heterogeneity |
| November 10, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Sebastian Poblete (Northwestern University): School Value-Added and the Math Gender Gap in Chile |
| November 10, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Myera Rashid (Northwestern University): Marriage and the Intergenerational Mobility of Women: Evidence from Marriage Certificates 1850-1910
Abstract: The invention of the typewriter provided entry into the labor force and offices for many young American women in the early 1900s. I find evidence that the typewriter contributed to a persistent increase in women’s labor force participation and other socioeconomic outcomes for women. Beyond access to work in new industries, the technology change also provided women access to a new marriage market that they previously did not have access to. It allowed them to marry men of higher socioeconomic status and subsequently achieve socio-economic mobility.
Hyein Cho (Northwestern University): Limiting For-profit Provision in Nursing Home Markets
Abstract: We study the welfare implication of limiting for-profit provision in the US nursing home industry, a recent policy debate spurred by findings that for-profit providers provide lower quality service than their not-for-profit counterparts. We document that there is a quality and access trade-off, which makes the answer theoretically ambiguous. On the one hand, for-profit providers choose lower quality inputs, which may result in lower quality outcomes. On the other hand, for-profit providers provide access by disproportionately serving the Medicaid population and maintaining larger facilities with more beds. To simulate counterfactual policies, we develop a two-stage game, where providers make entry decisions in the first stage and price and quality choices in the second stage. We show modeling differences in preferences and cost structure is important to capture the primitives driving different observed choices. |
| November 9, 20227:00 PM - 10:00 PM | 2022 Chicagoland Friends of Economic History Dinner | Please join the Department of Economics and the Center for Economic History for our biannual Chicagoland Friends of Economic History Dinner. Leah Boustan will present "Does America offer 'Streets of Gold' for all? Refugees, Criminals and the Poor". |
| November 9, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Leah Boustan (Princeton University): "Automation After the Assembly Line: Computerized Machine Tools, Employment and Productivity in the United States" |
| November 9, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Kenneth Fu (Northwestern University): "Improved Partial Identification for Average Treatment Effect with Cross Design Synthesis" |
| November 8, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Pedro Sant'Anna (Microsoft): "Selection and Parallel Trends" joint with Dalia Ghanem and Kaspar Wüthrich |
| November 8, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Marcus Dillender (Vanderbilt): "Evidence and Lessons on the Health Impacts of Public Health Funding from the Fight against HIV/AIDS"
Abstract: A key approach used by federal governments to address public health issues is to allocate federal funds to support local responses, but little is known about the effectiveness of this approach for improving health. This study examines the impact of federal public health funds allocated to U.S. cities through the U.S. government’s primary mechanism for combating HIV/AIDS for the past three decades. The empirical approach identifies the impact of this funding by studying funding variation that comes from policy features that resulted in large funding differences among cities that were originally on parallel HIV/AIDS trajectories. The findings indicate that an HIV/AIDS death has been prevented for every $334,000 allocated through the city-level funding and that the $19 billion allocated to cities through this program through 2018 has saved approximately 57,000 lives, which represents over $560 billion of value in terms of lives saved assuming a value of a statistical life of $10 million. The findings also indicate that funding differences across cities have been a major contributor to the uneven progress in combating HIV/AIDS currently observed across the United States that has alarmed public health leaders. Thus, while this analysis supports
allocating federal funds to local areas as part of a public health strategy, these funds being effective means that sustained differences in areas’ receipt of federal public health funds can contribute to the development of health disparities across areas, as has occurred with HIV/AIDS. |
| November 7, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization (CANCELLED) | Jihye Jeon (Boston University): "Patient Costs and Physicians' Information" |
| November 7, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Elena Pastorino (Stanford): "The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run" |
| November 7, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Hershdeep Chopra (Northwestern University): "News Selection Under Uncertainty" |
| November 4, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Myera Rashid (Northwestern University): Marriage and the Intergenerational Mobility of Women: Evidence from Marriage Certificates
Abstract: The literature finds a high degree of economic mobility for men in the 19th century in comparison to today. However, due to data limitations, changes in female economic mobility over time are not well understood. Using a set of marriage certificates from Massachusetts over the period of 1850-1910, we link men and women to their childhood and adult census records to obtain a measure of occupational standing across two generations. We find that women are more mobile than men between 1850-1880. Between 1880-1910, men's mobility increases to converge with that of women. We also find evidence of assortative mating based on the correlation in occupational income score and real estate wealth between the husband's and wife's fathers. Absent the increase in marital sorting, married women would have experienced the same increases in intergenerational mobility as did men in the sample.
and
Brian Beach (Vanderbilt University) with Karen Clay and Martin Saavedra: Contagious Ideas: Universities and the Spread of Germ Theory in American Newspapers
Abstract: The discovery, development, and dissemination of germ theory in everyday life dramatically improved the quantity and quality of human life by influencing private and public health practices. While the scientific development of germ theory is well documented, existing studies rely on qualitative data or small data sets to examine how germ theory moved from discovery to practical implementation. This has made it difficult to evaluate the importance of germ theory as a driver of health improvements. We document the diffusion of germ theory in the United States through patents and printed material. The diffusion process appears to gain momentum after 1877 and is largely complete by 1900. We show that the germ theory of disease arrived sooner in counties with universities. |
| November 3, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Michael Kremer (UChicago): "Can Education be Standardized? Evidence from Kenya" with Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Anthony Keets, Isaac Mbiti, and Owen Ozier
Abstract: We examine the impact of enrolling in schools that employ a highly-standardized approach to education, using random variation from a large nationwide scholarship program. Bridge International Academies not only delivers highly detailed lesson guides to teachers using tablet computers, it also standardizes systems for daily teacher monitoring and feedback, school construction, and financial management. At the time of the study, Bridge operated over 400 private schools serving more than 100,000 pupils. It hired teachers with less formal education and experience than public school teachers, paid them less, and had more working hours per week. Enrolling at Bridge for two years increased test scores by 0.89 additional equivalent years of schooling (EYS) for primary school pupils and by 1.48 EYS for pre-primary pupils. These effects exceed the 90th percentile of studies examined by Evans and Yuan (2020) and the 99th percentile of treatment effects of large sample studies reviewed in the same study. Enrolling at Bridge reduced both dispersion in test scores and grade repetition. Test score results do not seem to be driven by rote memorization or by the income effects of the scholarship.
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| November 3, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Edoardo Maria Acabbi (Charles III University of Madrid): A Labor Market Sorting Model of Scarring and Hysteresis |
| November 3, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Lakshmi Iyer (University of Notre Dame) - Religion and Demography: The Influence of Papal Visits on Fertility
Abstract: We examine the role of religious influences on fertility decisions. Using data from 12 Latin American countries, we document widely-varying effects of the Pope's visits on subsequent fertility decisions, with some areas showing little or no effects and others showing large increases in fertility. We investigate several mechanisms to explain such heterogeneous effects, including the role of per capita income, religiosity and stage of demographic transition. |
| November 3, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Anran Li (Northwestern University): Limited Commitment and Preventive Care Provision
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of limited commitment on preventive care provision in health insurance. Limited consumer commitment generates dynamic inefficiencies and discourages insurers to provide preventive care because the returns of current health investment may not be recovered in future periods as consumers leave the insurer. I exploit a shift-share instrument for consumer turnover and find that a 10% increase in turnover decrease preventive utilization rates by 6%, and insurers’ preventive investment by $53 per enrollee. I develop a model of dynamic insurer competition on preventive care quality and premiums to quantify the welfare impacts of limited consumer commitment and evaluate the tradeoff between market power and investment cost savings from competition. A 10% increase in consumer turnover increase $116 total discounted consumer out of pocket expenses. A single payer increases total discounted consumer welfare by $740 and decreases $630 total discounted OOP compared to the status quo. |
| November 2, 20224:00 PM - 6:00 PM | Accounting for Slavery: A Conversation with Caitlin Rosenthal | Caitlin Rosenthal (UC Berkeley), will give remarks about her book Accounting for Slavery: Masters and Management, which shows how the development of modern management and accounting practices find their origins in slavery. These remarks will be followed by a conversation between Dr. Rosenthal and faculty member Dr. Ivy Onyeador from Kellogg’s Management and Organizations Department, a question and answer session with the audience, and a reception with the speaker and the audience members.
We invite you to register in advance by the end of the day on October 26, 2022 to secure a spot.
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| November 2, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | David Weil (Brown University): "Land Quality" |
| November 2, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Felipe Berrutti Rampa (Northwestern University): "Market Structure, Innovation and Prices: The Case of Agricultural Biotechnology" |
| November 1, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Whitney Newey (MIT): "Constrained Conditional Moment Restriction Models" with Victor Chernozhukov and Andres Santos
Abstract: Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper we provide a general procedure for inference under shape restrictions in identified and partially identified models defined by conditional moment restrictions. Our test statistics and proposed inference methods are based on the minimum of the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective function with and without shape restrictions. Uniformly valid critical values are obtained through a bootstrap procedure that approximates a subset of the true local parameter space. In an empirical analysis of the effect of childbearing on female labor supply, we show that employing shape restrictions in linear instrumental variables (IV) models can lead to shorter confidence regions for both local and average treatment effects. Other applications we discuss include inference for the variability of quantile IV treatment effects and for bounds on average equivalent variation in a demand model with general heterogeneity. We find in Monte Carlo examples that the critical values are conservatively accurate and that tests about objects of interest have good power relative to unrestricted GMM.
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| November 1, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Michael Mueller-Smith (UMichigan): "Estimating the Impact of the Age of Criminal Majority: Decomposing Multiple Treatments in a Regression Discontinuity Framework" with Benjamin Pyle and Caroline Walker |
| October 31, 20223:30 PM - 4:45 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Charles Hodgson (Yale): "Information Externalities, Free Riding, and Optimal Exploration in the UK Oil Industry" |
| October 31, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Institute for Policy Research Colloquium with Hannes Schwandt (IPR/SESP) - The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on U.S. Fertility | Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University) -The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on U.S. Fertility*
Hannes Schwandt, Associate Professor of Human Development and Social Policy and IPR Fellow.
* This presentation will cover work in progress.
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| October 31, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Christian Hellwig (Toulouse): "A fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work: Optimal tax design as redistributional arbitrage" with Nicolas Werquin. |
| October 31, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Pedro Ohi (Northwestern University): "News Regulation with Political Costs" |
| October 28, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Chris Sims (Northwestern University) - (De-)Industrialization and Trade: Evidence from the Danish Sound Dues
Abstract: Using a large historical data set on trade in Europe, I document that the Baltic region saw declining export shares and increasing trade deficits in manufactured goods between 1700 and 1850, becoming more pronounced over the course of the British Industrial Revolution, which I interpret as evidence of de-industrialization. I will also discuss future strategies for understanding the causes of de-industrialization based on exposure to the British Industrial Revolution
Matteo Giugovaz (Northwestern University) - Forced Migration and Political Outcomes: Insights from the Istrian Dalmatian Exodus after WWII
Abstract: I study the effects of same-ethnicity forced migration on political outcomes by exploiting a unique historical setting: the Istrian Dalmatian Exodus. After WWII, 290,000 individuals flew formerly Italian areas that had passed under Yugoslavian control. This outmigration, supported by the new socialist Yugoslavian state, was spurred by ethnic persecutions and was perceived as political oppression; these persecutions left strong anti-communist marks on migrants. By leveraging previously unexplored data, I study the impact of refugees’ arrival on political views. My results show that the presence of a refugee camp is associated with greater political polarization and an increase in national election turnout between 1946 and 1958. I document a strong and significant increase in support for the right-wing parties and a decrease for the moderate centrist block. These results are consistent with either a “red scare” mechanism or horizontal transmission of anti-communist values between immigrants and natives. |
| October 27, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Sarah Deschênes (Northwestern): "Expanding Access to Schooling in Nigeria: Impact on marital outcomes" |
| October 27, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Cara Ebert (RWI Essen) : "Migration Mentoring and Its Networked Effects in Senegal" |
| October 27, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Santiago Camara (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| October 27, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Siddhant Agarwal: Workhour Regularity and Gender Gaps: Evidence from Brazilian Exporters
Abstract: Following Goldin (AER, 2014), I conjecture that women have a higher preference for the amenity of workhour regularity (due to the gendered division of labour at home, childcare, and safety concerns), and this explains a significant part of the gender gaps we see in employment, promotions, and wages. Using a panel of employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I empirically test the importance of this factor by exploiting variation in the time zones of the trading partners of exporting firms. I find that firms that trade with further away clients employ fewer female employees. Since exporting firms also pay a significant premium over domestic firms, this helps explain a large portion of the gender wage gap. |
| October 26, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Elisa Jácome (Northwestern University): “Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the 20th Century”, with Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu.
Abstract: We estimate long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for representative
samples of the U.S.-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that include father’s
occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for
the inclusion of non-whites and women for the 1910s–1970s birth cohorts. We show
that mobility increases between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts and that the decline of
Black-white income gaps explains about half of this rise. We also find that excluding
Black Americans, particularly women, considerably overstates the level of mobility for
twentieth-century birth cohorts while simultaneously understating its increase between
the 1910s and 1940s |
| October 26, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Giovanni Pisauro (Northwestern University): "Health Care Related Determinants of Fertility and Health: the Case of Pharmacists’ Scope of Practice " |
| October 25, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Yong Cai (Northwestern) - "Linear Regression with Centrality Measures" |
| October 25, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Rob Fairlie (University of California, Santa Cruz): "Affirmative Action, Quality of Instruction and Lower-Caste Student-Faculty Interactions: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Classes in Engineering Colleges in India" |
| October 24, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Jean-Francois Houde (Yale): "Asymmetric Information and the Supply Chain of Mortgages: The Case of Ginnie Mae Loans” with Ken Hendrics, Jonathan Becker and Diwakar Raisingh |
| October 24, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Oleg Itskhoki (UCLA): "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy" with Dmitry Mukhin
Abstract: We develop a general policy analysis framework that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions with endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The goal of the optimal policy is to balance output gap stabilization and international risk sharing using a mix of monetary policy and FX interventions. The nominal exchange rate plays a dual role. First, it allows for the real exchange rate adjustments when prices are sticky, which are necessary to close the output gap. Monetary policy can eliminate the output gap, but this generally requires a volatile nominal exchange rate. Volatility in the nominal exchange rate, in turn, limits the extent of international risk sharing in the financial market with risk averse intermediaries. Optimal monetary policy closes the output gap, while optimal FX interventions eliminate UIP deviations. When the first-best real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved by a fixed exchange rate policy — an open-economy divine coincidence. Generally, this is not the case, and the optimal policy requires a managed peg by means of a combination of monetary policy and FX interventions, without requiring the use of capital controls. We explore various constrained optimal policies, when either monetary policy or FX interventions are restricted, and characterize the possibility of central bank’s income gains and losses from FX interventions. |
| October 24, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Cristoforo Pizzimenti (Northwestern University): "Banks’ Loans and Safe Assets: Does Regulation Matter for Ssset Allocation?" |
| October 21, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Kyohei Okumura (Northwestern University): "Designing Dynamic Contests with Incremental Progress" |
| October 21, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Blair Long (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee): Extralegal Determinants of Criminal Sentencing: The Case of British Columbia, 1864-1913
Abstract: What factors determine criminal sentences? While legal factors such as crime and criminal history should affect punishment, judges may also incorporate extralegal factors when handing down sentences. In this paper, we study the role that extralegal determinants played in the sentencing of criminals in British Columbia (BC) between 1864 and 1913. Using prison admissions data, we document the sentencing behaviour of judges and find more leniency towards women, Indigenous, and Chinese individuals. We find harsher sentences for the lowest and highest social classes. Over time, we find that these biases shifted, concurrent with significant historical events. A sentiment analysis of historical BC newspapers shows that public sentiment mirrored this pattern. We conduct tests to distinguish between taste-based and statistical bias. First, we estimate prisoners' predicted future recidivism and incorporate this into our main specification. We find that statistical bias is present but small in comparison to the extralegal bias we initially observe. We next augment Becker's (1968) model of punishment to incorporate both channels of bias. We use the building of the Canadian Pacific Railway in BC as an exogenous decrease in the incentives for crime to test for the presence of statistical bias. In this case, we detect substantial statistical bias favouring domestic and European workers. Chinese workers, however, see no change in their sentences during the building of the CPR, which we attribute to judicial tastes. |
| October 20, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Hossein Alidaee (Northwestern): "How Uncertainty About Heterogeneity Impacts Technology Adoption"
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| October 20, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development (joint with Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Hossein Alidaee (Northwestern): "How Uncertainty About Heterogeneity Impacts Technology Adoption" |
| October 20, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ismaël Yacoubou Djima (Paris School of Economics) - Migration, Occupations Transmission, and Development: Evidence from Castes in Mali
Abstract: In this work, I document that, in Mali, social identity based on castes--historical, hierarchical social groups whose role is thought to have subsided- still relates to the current socio-economic outcomes of part of the population. Using individuals' last names, a marker of caste identity, I start by showing that it is possible to proxy for the castes of individuals in 8 rounds of living standards household surveys collected between 2014 and 2019. Then, focusing on internal migration, I provide evidence that individuals from castes of artisans and griots (bards) are less likely to migrate from rural to urban areas than the rest of the population. This lower migration rate appears to be related to the amenities provided by their castes' identities in rural areas. These amenities are linked to the current occupations for the artisan caste that is over-represented in professions of the artisanal type and whose members are more likely to pass on their occupations to their descendants. On the other hand, the griots' amenities come from the traditional role they play in social contexts (ceremonies, conflict resolution, etc.), allowing them to derive a higher share of their consumption from gifts than other groups. |
| October 20, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Emre Yavuz (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| October 20, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Anastasiia Evdokimova (Northwestern University): Obfuscation on the OTC market: suboptimal choices and costly information acquisition
Abstract: The goal of the FDA on the self-medication market is to guide consumers to the appropriate treatment choice: to provide clear, simple, and readable over-the-counter drug labels. While these policies manage to reach symptom/drug matching, according to our analysis, we cannot rule out the existence of consumer obfuscation. We observe a price dispersion for identical drugs, which differ only in the direction of usage. We also document that under this price dispersion, consumers make suboptimal decisions, choosing the more expensive version of the identical drug. One possible explanation for why consumers make suboptimal decisions under the full information case is that while information from labels is publicly available, some parts are costly to acquire. While the front label of the drug contains all the information that can lead to the first best decision, part of this information, such as active components, is health-related, specific, knowledge that is hard to obtain and use during decision-making. Therefore, we construct a model that helps to disentangle costly information acquisition decisions from preferences and inertia and draw a distribution of the information acquisition costs. Based on the parameters of this model, we will be able to construct policy counterfactuals that address changes in welfare as a result of a change in the price of information acquisition. |
| October 19, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Nancy Qian (Northwestern University): “The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33”, with Natalya Naumenko and Andrei Markevich.
Abstract: This paper constructs a large new dataset and document several new facts about the Great Soviet Famine (1932-33), during which mortality was disproportionally higher for Ukrainians. First, enough food was produced in Ukraine to avoid famine. Since food distribution was centrally planned, it follows that over-procurement from Ukraine is a necessary condition for famine. Second, famine mortality and realized food procurement (retention) were increasing (decreasing) with the share of ethnic Ukrainians across regions, holding per capita food production, weather and other variables constant. This and other results support the hypothesis that Ukrainian famine mortality was due to systematic policy bias against Ukrainians. Ukrainian bias explains approximately 92% of famine deaths in Ukraine and 77% in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. |
| October 19, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Valerio Di Tommaso (Northwestern University): "Market Expectations and the Macroeconomy: an Application to the Oil Industry" |
| October 18, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Panos Toulis (UChicago Booth School) - "Invariant Inference via Residual Randomization" |
| October 17, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Chenyu Yang (University of Maryland): "Estimating Discrete Games with Many Firms and Many Decisions: An Application to Merger and Product Variety" (with Ying Fan)
Abstract: This paper presents a new method for estimating discrete games based on bounds
of conditional choice probabilities. The method does not require solving the game
and is scalable to models with many firms and many discrete decisions. We apply the
method to study merger effects on firm entry and product variety in the retail craft
beer market in California. We simulate an acquisition of multiple craft breweries by a
large brewery and find that the acquisition would induce firm entry and product entry
by non-merging firms. However, these changes are insufficient to offset the negative
welfare effects resulting from the higher prices and decreased product offerings by the
merging firms. |
| October 17, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Institute for Policy Research Colloquium with Charles Manski (IPR/Economics) - Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response | Charles Manski (Northwestern University) - Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-Reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups*
Working paper can be found here.
*This presentation will cover work in progress. |
| October 17, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Chad Jones (Stanford): "Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail"
Abstract: New ideas are often combinations of existing ideas, a point emphasized by Romer
(1993) and Weitzman (1998). But this insight is largely absent from state-of-the-art
models. Separately, Kortum (1997) created a new framework for modeling growth,
one where ideas are draws from a probability distribution, and argued that the
Pareto distribution plays an essential role. What happened to the Romer-Weitzman
observation that combinations matter, and do we really need to make such a strong
distributional assumption to get growth? This paper shows that combinatorial increases in the number of draws from standard thin-tailed distributions leads to
exponential economic growth. More broadly, the paper provides a theorem linking
the behavior of the max extreme value to the number of draws and the shape of the
upper tail for probability distributions. |
| October 17, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Ludovica Mosillo (Northwestern University): "Is migration good for everyone? Parental migration and children left behind" |
| October 14, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Nina Fluegel (Northwestern University): "Convincing Agents to Collaborate" |
| October 14, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Lukas Rosenberger (Northwestern University): Access to Knowledge and Economic Growth |
| October 13, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Federico Puglisi (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| October 13, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Aleksandra Paluszynska (Northwestern University): Hazy decisions: The effect of dementia on medical decision-making
Abstract: I estimate the causal effect of having dementia on the course of treatment for an unrelated disease by leveraging differences in relative time of onset of dementia and the other condition in a difference-in-differences event-study framework. To demonstrate this approach I look at heart attacks and show that after accounting for individual and calendar time fixed effects the "dementia first" and "heart attack first" groups exhibit parallel trends in health care utilization before the heart attack. I find that health care cost is persistently lower following a heart attack for those who had dementia already and that the effect is driven by decreases in frequency of care. Dementia patients who experience a heart attack reduce the number of interactions with the health care system, while those who do not yet have dementia markedly increase their frequency of care in response to the health shock. I establish that this finding holds universally for a variety of other acute and chronic conditions and is not driven by higher mortality among dementia patients. Long-term reductions in medical care received are driven by care over which patients have the most discretion such as pathology and lab, which points to reduced follow-up care and treatment adherence as possible mechanisms behind my estimates. |
| October 12, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Vageesha Bainwala (Northwestern University): "Transparent “Piggy-Banks” & Domestic Violence: Evidence from Demonetization" |
| October 11, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Davide Viviano (Stanford GSB): "Policy design in experiments with unknown interference"
Abstract: This paper studies experimental designs for estimation and inference on welfare-maximizing policies in the presence of spillover effects. I consider a setting where units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unknown ways within each cluster. As a first contribution, I introduce a single-wave experiment which, by carefully varying the randomization across pairs of clusters, estimates the marginal effect of a change in treatment probabilities, taking spillover effects into account. Using the marginal effect, I propose a practical test for policy optimality. The idea is that researchers should report the marginal effect and test for policy optimality: the marginal effect indicates the direction for a welfare improvement, and the test provides evidence on whether it is worth conducting additional experiments to estimate a welfare-improving treatment allocation. As a second contribution, I design a multiple-wave experiment to estimate treatment assignment rules and maximize welfare. I derive strong small-sample guarantees on the difference between the maximum attainable welfare and the welfare evaluated at the estimated policy, which converges linearly in the number of clusters and iterations. Simulations calibrated to existing experiments on information diffusion and cash-transfer programs show welfare improvements up to fifty percentage points. |
| October 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization (joint with Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Eilidh Geddes (Northwestern): "The Effects of Price Regulation in Markets with Strategic Entry: Evidence from Health Insurance Markets"
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| October 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization (joint with Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Eilidh Geddes (Northwestern): "The Effects of Price Regulation in Markets with Strategic Entry: Evidence from Health Insurance Markets" |
| October 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization (joint with Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Eilidh Geddes (Northwestern): "The Effects of Price Regulation in Markets with Strategic Entry: Evidence from Health Insurance Markets" |
| October 10, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Rohan Kekre (UChicago Booth): "The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing” |
| October 10, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Sebastian Sardon (Northwestern University): "Land Redistribution and Productivity: Evidence from a Peruvian Reform" |
| October 7, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Julius Koschnik (London School of Economics): Breaking Tradition: Teacher-Student Effects at English Universities during the Scientific Revolution
Abstract: While teacher-student effects in conveying a fixed curriculum have been widely studied, the effect of teachers on the direction of research at the knowledge frontier has received less attention. This paper studies the teacher effect on students’ future research at the time of the English Scientific Revolution. It introduces a novel dataset on the universe of all 111,242 students at English universities in the seventeenth and early eighteenth century and matches them to their publications. Through topic modeling, the paper is able to quantify personal interest in different research topics. To derive causal estimates, the paper exploits a natural experiment based on the expulsion of fellows following the English Civil War. The paper finds that teachers strongly influenced the direction of research of their students, both for traditional topics and topics associated with the Scientific Revolution. Thus, it identifies an important channel for the intergenerational transmission of the ideas of the Scientific Revolution. |
| October 6, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Eduardo Campillo Betancourt (Northwestern): “Caste heterogeneity in the effects of political affirmative action on India”
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| October 6, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development (joint with Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Eduardo Campillo Betancourt (Northwestern): “Caste heterogeneity in the effects of political affirmative action on India” |
| October 6, 202212:15 PM - 1:15 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Marie-Louise Decamps (Northwestern University) - Agricultural Productivity and Deforestation
Abstract: I examine the effects of increasing agricultural productivity on the reallocation of agricultural activity across space, and on deforestation. I leverage the heterogeneous effects that the introduction of genetically engineered (GE) soybean seeds had on agricultural productivity across areas with different soil and weather characteristics, and satellite data on land use in Brazil from 1996-2010. I consider two sources of exposure to the shock. The direct exposure refers to the local increase in soy productivity. I find that it leads to changes in the local composition of agricultural land use, driven by the reduction in cattle ranching, but not to changes in forest area. Second, I consider the indirect exposure from proximity to areas with larger local increases in soy productivity. I find that cattle ranching activity reallocates to indirectly exposed areas, and leads to a reduction in forest area. This shows that changes in the composition of agricultural activity across space should be considered when examining the total environmental cost of local agricultural productivity shocks. |
| October 6, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Joao Guerreiro (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| October 6, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Jose Luis Flor Toro (Northwestern University): Higher Education in Peru: An Economics Overview
Abstract: While the rapid expansion of enrollment in higher education in Latin America has been seen positively, it has also been coupled with lowering quality indicators and other issues. In an extreme reaction, the Peruvian government issued a moratorium on new universities and new branches of existing ones in 2012. This is a great setting to understand the effects of entry on welfare in the higher education industry, as it features asymmetric information and endogenous quality decisions of the providers. Moreover, the overall allocation is centralized through a system called SERUMS, and we exploit this too. Recent reduced-form evidence motivates more cautious inspection of the results, and of the overall allocation results.
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| October 5, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Eric Chaney (Oxford University): "Modern Library Holdings and Historic City Growth" |
| October 5, 20221:45 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Workshop | Stefano DellaVigna (University of California, Berkeley) - Bottlenecks for Evidence Adoption |
| October 5, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Elizabeth Jaramillo Rojas (Northwestern University): "Maternity Leave Policies and Informality" |
| October 4, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Wayne Gao (UPenn) - "Two Stage Maximum Score Estimator" |
| October 3, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Paul Kim (Northwestern): "Risk-Corridors in Medicare Part D: Risk-Sharing or Profit-Limiting Mechanism?" |
| October 3, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics (Cancelled) | Hassan Afrouzi (Columbia): "Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks: A Sufficient Statistics Approach" (with Saroj Bhattarai) |
| October 3, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Tom Fisher (Northwestern University): "Dynamic co-ordination games with information externalities - On Revolutionary Waves" |
| September 30, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Danil Fedchenko (Northwestern University): "Unobservable Outcomes: Unified and Economics‑Friendly Approach to Surrogates" |
| September 30, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Emily Nix (University of Southern California): Black-White Income Inequality During Jim Crow: Evidence from "Passing" for White (with Ricardo Dahis and Nancy Qian) |
| September 29, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Sean Higgins (Northwestern University) - The Impact of Price Comparison Tools in Consumer Credit Markets (with Erik Berwart, Sheisha Kulkarni, and Santiago Truffa)
Abstract: Consumer credit markets feature large amounts of price dispersion in loan costs, even conditional on loan and borrower characteristics. If consumers are unaware of the extent of this price dispersion, they may shop less and take out loans at higher interest rates than they would otherwise. We conduct a randomized controlled trial in Chile where we provide just-in-time, personalized information about the distribution of interest rates or the benefits of search to people searching for loans on Google. The first treatment arm is a price comparison tool that shows prospective borrowers a conditional distribution of interest rates based on administrative data on originated loans for borrowers and loans with similar observable characteristics. The second treatment is a simplified message that shows prospective borrowers an estimate of the monthly and total amount they could save by shopping at more banks. We find that consumers indeed underestimate price dispersion, and that the price comparison tool causes them to double their estimate of how much dispersion there is in interest rates. Consumers also underestimate the interest rate they will obtain, and the price comparison tool causes them to increase their prior about the interest rate they will obtain by 17 percentage points over a control mean of 23%. The simplified message treatment does not appear to affect priors about dispersion or the rate people expect to obtain. Our trial is still ongoing; after finishing our data collection, we will analyze results on loan characteristics using administrative data from Chile’s financial regulator. We will also conduct a follow-up phone survey that will be used to measure effects on search behavior and better understand how people form and update priors in consumer credit markets. |
| September 29, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Carl Hallman (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| September 29, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Genia Rachkovski (Northwestern University): Heads Up: Does Air Pollution Cause Workplace Accidents
The presentation will be on zoom. |
| September 28, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Martin Fiszbein (Boston University): "The Other Great Migration: Southern Whites and the New Right" (with Samuel Bazzi, Andy Ferrara, Thomas Pearson, and Patrick Testa) |
| September 28, 20221:45 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Workshop | James Sallee (University of California, Berkeley) - Title TBA
Strategy Department Seminar Series
Virtual Option |
| September 28, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Andrea Ferrara (Northwestern University): "Monetary Shock, Firms’ Debt Maturity
and the Investment Channel" |
| September 27, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Andrei Zeleneev (University College London) - "Robust Estimation and Inference in Panels with Interactive Fixed Effects" |
| September 27, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics (joint with Development) | Nicole Holz (Northwestern): "Information Disclosure and Patient Demand" |
| September 27, 20222:30 PM - 4:00 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics (joint with Development) | Nicole Holz (Northwestern): "Information Disclosure and Patient Demand" |
| September 26, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Diego Jimenez-Hernandez (Chicago Federal Reserve): Title TBA |
| September 26, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Per Krusell (Stockholm University): "Suboptimal Climate Policy, II" Joint with John Hassler (IIES) and Conny Olovsson (Sveriges Riksbank and ECB) |
| September 26, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Sebastian Poblete Coddou (Northwestern University): "Efficiency of Slot Auctions at Congested Airports" |
| September 23, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Jose Higueras Corona (Northwestern University): "Optimal Trade Design by a Platform" |
| September 23, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Introductory lunch |
| September 22, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development (joint with Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Kensuke Maeba (Northwestern): "Extrapolation of Treatment Effect Estimates Across Contexts and Policies: An Application to Cash Transfer Experiments"
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| September 22, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development (joint with Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics) | Kensuke Maeba (Northwestern): "Extrapolation of Treatment Effect Estimates Across Contexts and Policies: An Application to Cash Transfer Experiments" |
| September 22, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Dalton Zhang (Northwestern University) and Xiaojie Liu (Northwestern University): TItle TBA |
| September 22, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Speaker: TBA
Title: TBA |
| September 21, 20221:45 PM - 3:00 PM | Kellogg Strategy Workshop | Alessandro Pavan (Northwestern University) - "Knowing Your Lemon before You Dump It"
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| September 21, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Bruno Nunes Fava (Northwestern University): "On Strong Sparsity Assumptions and Their Implications for Post Double Selection in RCTs " |
| September 19, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Chiara Fumagalli (Bocconi): "Shelving or developing? Optimal policy for mergers with potential competitors" |
| June 9, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Santiago Camara (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| June 9, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Miriam Venturini (University of Zurich): "Labor Racketeering: Mafia in US unions. Consequences of a negative reputation shock"
Sebastian Poblete Coddou (Northwestern University): "Teacher Value-added and the Test Scores Gender Gap" |
| June 6, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Adam Dearing (Cornell University): Title TBA |
| June 3, 20222:00 PM - 3:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Kwok Yan Chiu (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| June 3, 202212:45 PM - 2:15 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Megumi Murakami (Northwestern University): Design of the Medical System during the Industrial Revolution - A historical case in 19-20th century Japan |
| June 2, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Priya Mukherjee (UW Madison): Title TBA |
| June 2, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Priya Mukherjee (UW Madison): Title TBA |
| June 2, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Laura Murphy (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| June 2, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Nicole Ozminkowski (Northwestern University): "Patient Demand and Quality Disclosure"
Abstract: Quality disclosure in the healthcare industry helps guide patients to choose better quality physicians, but since quality is difficult to measure and quality signals sometimes do not impact demand, it is an empirical question whether they can improve patient outcomes. In this paper, I explore whether a quality disclosure policy used by a private insurance company led to differences in the number of new patients seen by doctors based on their quality status, and whether patients who saw high quality doctors have better outcomes. I use a regression discontinuity design, which exploits the fact that the program discloses "high" and "low" quality without disclosing the underlying quality and cost "scores" that lead to these designations. I find that patients have a clear preference for "premium" doctors, who are designated as high quality and low cost by the insurer. Using a "mover" design, which exploits patient switches from low to high quality doctors, I find that seeing a higher quality doctor leads to a 72% increase in medical spending. |
| June 1, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Phillipp Ager (Uinversity of Manheim): Title TBA |
| June 1, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ashley Wong (Northwestern University): Title TBA
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| June 1, 202212:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Northwestern Joint CET / Math Center Conference | Northwestern Conference on Interface Between Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Economics
*registration will be required; please check back for more information
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| June 1, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Felipe Durazzo (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 31, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Pedro Sant'Anna (Microsoft): Title TBA |
| May 31, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Seminar in Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Joan Monras (Princeton): "Floating population: consumption and location choices of rural migrants in China" (joint with Imbert, Seror, and Zylberberg) |
| May 31, 202212:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Northwestern Joint CET / Math Center Conference | Northwestern Conference on Interface Between Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Economics
*registration will be required; please check back for more information
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| May 27, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Walker Hanlon (Northwestern University): Why Britain? The Right Place (in the Technology Space) at the Right Time (with Lukas Rosenberger and Carl Hallmann)
Cavit Baran (Northwestern University): "When the Fruits Bite Back: Long-Run Health and Economic Effects of Pesticides in the United States"
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| May 26, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Eric Verhoogen (Columbia University): "Input Quality Complementarities" (joint with David Atkin, Azam Chaudhry, Shamyla Chaudry, Amit Khandelwal and Tariq Raza) |
| May 26, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Federico Puglisi (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| May 26, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Kensuke Maeba (Northwestern University): "Evaluating Extrapolation Across Contexts and Policies With Cash Transfer Experiments"
Abstract:
Extrapolation from existing policies is useful for predicting the effects of new policies. Previous research extrapolates either from the same policy in a similar context or from a similar policy in the same context. Little is known, however, about which similarity makes better predictions. Using cash transfer experiments in Malawi and Morocco, we study the performance of these two extrapolations for predicting the effects of cash transfers on schooling. To project where predictions differ on economic theory, we construct and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model for schooling decisions, causally identified with exogenous cash transfers. |
| May 25, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Paul Dower (Uinversity of Wisconsin - Madison): Title TBA |
| May 25, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Devis Decet (Northwestern University): "Agriculture Taxation, States and Democracy in Africa (joint with Ameet Morjaria)"
Matheus Carioca Sampaio (Northwestern University): "The Effects of Covid Relief in Brazil" |
| May 25, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Tomer Yehoshua-Sandak (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 24, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Toru Kitagawa (University College London): "Constrained classification and policy learning" with Shosei Sakaguchi and Aleksey Tetenov |
| May 24, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | David Molitor (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign): “Why Does Disability Insurance Enrollment Increase During Recessions? Evidence from Medicare” |
| May 24, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Sarah Komisarow (Duke University): Ending Exclusionary Discipline in the Early Grades: Effects and Implications, (joint with Ezra Karger at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| May 23, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Chris Neilson (Princeton University): Title TBA |
| May 23, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Kyle Herkenhoff (University of Minnesota/Minneapolis Fed): Title TBA
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| May 23, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Kaman Lyu (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 19, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Natalia Rigol (Harvard Business School): Title TBA |
| May 19, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Carlos da Costa (Northwestern University): “A mechanism for the household” |
| May 19, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Carlo Medici (Northwestern University): "Political Cycles in Black Unionization: Evidence from the U.S. Public Sector"
Abstract: A broad strand of literature in economics has studied political cycles, especially focusing on how politicians manipulate budgets to increase their chances of re-election. Much less attention has been given to how the political cycle affects the incentives and the behavior of organizations. In this paper, I study how elections affect public sector labor unions, a type of organization that has well acknowledged ties to politics, and the Democratic party in particular. I find that, in presidential elections years, unionization rates increase for Black workers. The effect is larger in occurrence of open seat elections, in Blue states and among constituencies where traditional institutions that mobilize Black votes are less present. This evidence is consistent with a mechanism in which unions increase their unionization rates to more effectively lobby politicians ahead of a general election, by targeting and mobilizing workers who are less likely to vote otherwise and more likely to lean Democratic. |
| May 18, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Nico Voigtlaender (UCLA): “Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France” |
| May 18, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Eduardo Campillo Betancourt (Northwestern University): "Distributional effects of caste-based reservations in India"
Abstract: Ever since the 2014 national election in India, the right-wing, populist BJP party has made large inroads with poor and low-caste voters in India, a surprising fact given the blatant anti-reservation rhetoric of Narendra Modi’s organization. One explanation that political commentators have offered for this shift in voting patterns is the success of the BJP’s attacks on traditional low-caste parties by claiming that these institutions have disproportionally benefitted people belonging to select, politically powerful caste groups and have neglected the broader Scheduled Caste population. This assertion has yet to be proven empirically, chiefly due to a lack of rich micro data containing the caste of respondents. To overcome this issue, I develop a method for predicting people’s caste based on their given and family names. I then use this method to estimate whether scheduled caste representatives deliver public services inequitably among their low caste constituents depending on their specific sub-caste. I test this in the context of the world's largest public employment program: India’s rural employment guarantee scheme. |
| May 18, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Thomas Pellet (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 17, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Jonathan Roth (Brown University): Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments (with Ashesh Rambachan) |
| May 16, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Gautam Gowrisankaran (Columbia University): "Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity:The Case of Air Toxics Standards" |
| May 16, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Carolin Pfleuger (University of Chicago- Harris): "Perceptions about Monetary Policy" (joint with Michael Bauer and Adi Sunderam)
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| May 16, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Miguel Moreira Santana Freire (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 13, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Cristina Clerici (Stockholm School of Economics): "The Role of British Colonization in Shaping Attitudes Toward Homosexuals in Sub-Saharan Africa" (with Iacopo Bianchi and Dominik Biesalski)
Lukas Rosenberger (LMU Munich): "The American Origins of the French Revolution" (with Sebastian Ottinger) |
| May 12, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Morgan Hardy (New York University): "Why Don’t Small Firms Merge?
Experimental Evidence on Information Barriers" |
| May 12, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | João Monteiro (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| May 12, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Kaman Lyu (Northwestern University): Child Labour, Shocks and Human Capital (joint with Devis Decet)
Abstract: Child labour has serious implications on early life human capital formation as work displaces education. The Luxury Axiom states that child labour is an undesirable, but necessary, source of additional income when household consumption is low. Yet, there is growing evidence that parents put their children to work even when household income is high. Indeed, we find that when households face positive harvest shocks, child labour increases and subsequently, schooling and cognition decrease. A potential explanation is that parents perceive child labour itself as another dimension of human capital accumulation. In particular, working on farms is an investment in agricultural skills which can have higher returns than schooling investments if the child will inherit the family farm in the future. We implement a survey in Ghana to measure the prevalence and activities of child labour as well as to elicit beliefs on the returns to child labour in farming and domestic work. |
| May 11, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Elias Papaioannou (London School of Economics): Title TBA |
| May 11, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ritwika Sen (Northwestern University): Title TBA
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| May 11, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Ryu Matsuura (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Ismael Mourifie (University of Toronto): Title TBA |
| May 10, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Joan Monras (Princeton University): Title TBA |
| May 9, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Bob Town (University of Texas, Austin): Title TBA |
| May 9, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Adreas Schaab (Columbia): Title TBA
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| May 9, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Anastasiia Evdokimova (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 6, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Davide Coluccia (Bocconi University): Return Innovation: Evidence from the English Migration to the United States, 1850-1940 coauthored with Gaia Dossi (London School of Economics) |
| May 5, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Diego Cid Ortiz (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| May 4, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Lorenzo Casaburi (University of Zurich): "Land Rental Markets: Experimental Evidence from Kenya"
*Due to the BREAD Conference the seminar will be held on Wednesday, May 4th (this week only)
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| May 4, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Ben Milner (University of Alberta): "Education as Insurance against Resource Busts: Evidence from the 19th Century" |
| May 4, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Luxi Han (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| May 3, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Arie Beresteanu (University of Pittsburgh): Title TBA |
| May 3, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Anjalia Adukia (University of Chicago): Title TBA |
| May 2, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Juan Camilo Castillo (University of Pennsylvania): “Who Benefits from Surge Pricing?” |
| May 2, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Adrien Auclert (Stanford): Title TBA
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| May 2, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Hans Zhu (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| April 29, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Sebastian Ottinger (Northwestern University): Racial Discrimination and Innovation: Evidence from US Inventors (with Davide Coluccia)
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of racial discrimination on innovation. We show that white inventors with black names are disproportionately less likely to invent using novel data linking US inventors to census records. To address endogeneity in naming patterns, we exploit variation in the names of black Americans lynched in 1895-1925. We conjecture that lynching pivot the racial content of names, which signals the race of inventors to patent examiners. In a difference-in-differences setting, we show that after someone with a given name is lynched, the number of patents issued to white inventors with that name sharply and persistently decreases. We interpret our findings as evidence of discrimination. Our results suggest that racial biases can spill over to non-discriminated groups, thereby amplifying their social cost. |
| April 28, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Gaurav Chiplunkar (University of Virginia): Title TBA |
| April 28, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Clement Bohr (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| April 28, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Eilidh Geddes (Northwestern University): "Pricing Regulations and Entry Decisions: Evidence from the Health Insurance Exchanges"
Abstract: When firms are able to make strategic entry decisions, it is difficult for regulators to design pricing regulations that limit price discrimination without affecting the access of certain consumers. The Affordable Care Act established community rating areas where insurers must offer plans at uniform prices. However, they have the option to partially offer a plan to a subset of counties within a rating area. This regulation structure gives insurers the opportunity to use strategic entry decisions to respond to price discrimination regulations. Through a reduced form strategy taking advantage of the fact that rating areas cannot cross state lines, I establish that insurers change their entry decisions in response to rating areas design and find evidence of price changes, which could be due to changes in the composition of consumers in the market or due to these changes in entry decisions. To evaluate which mechanisms drive these price changes, I develop a structural model of insurer entry and pricing decisions and find evidence of substantial geographic variation in both demand elasticities and marginal costs that could affect both entry and pricing decisions. I estimate counterfactuals that evaluate how alternative designs and regulatory structures would affect both entry decisions and prices. |
| April 27, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Assaf Sarid (University of Haifa): Title TBA |
| April 27, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Kensuke Maeba (Northwestern University): "Evaluating Extrapolation Across Contexts and Policies With Cash Transfer Experiments"
Abstract: Extrapolation from existing policies is useful for predicting the effects of new policies. However, little is known about the accuracy of such predictions. Using cash transfer experiments in Malawi and Morocco, we study the performance of two extrapolations for predicting the effects of cash transfers on schooling: one from the same policy in a different context and the other from a different policy in the same context. To document the sources of prediction failures, we construct and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model for schooling decisions. This presentation will discuss the structural model and preliminary results using the Malawi data. |
| April 27, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Filip Obradovic (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| April 26, 20224:00 PM - 5:30 PM | The Susan Bies Lecture on Economics and Public Policy Presented by Darrell Duffie | Lecture title: "The Economics of U.S. Digital Currency Policy”
The Susan Bies Lecture on Economics and Public Policy was launched in 2008 in honor of Northwestern alumna Susan Schmidt Bies. Bies, who earned her doctorate in economics from Northwestern University in 1972, served in various capacities during a long career, including on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2001 until 2007. The lecture alternates between microeconomic and macroeconomic topics. |
| April 26, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Guillaume Pouliot (University of Chicago): Title TBA |
| April 26, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Desmond Ang (Harvard Kennedy School): Title TBA - SEMINAR CANCELLED |
| April 25, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Claudia Allende (Stanford Graduate School of Business): Title TBA |
| April 25, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Javier Bianchi (Minneapolis Fed): “Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing” (with Manuel Amador)
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| April 25, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Jin Yang (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| April 22, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Gianluca Russo (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona Graduate School of Economics): "Media and Assimilation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Radio"
Abstract: In this paper, I argue that exposure to mainstream media facilitates immigrants assimilation. I exploit the rise of radio networks in the United States after the Age of Mass Migration ended to identify the effects of radio exposure on immigrants assimilation. Using the US full count census, I follow repeated cross sections of immigrants before and after the expansion of radio networks in 1929. Immigrants that received better radio signal exerted more effort in assimilating by naming with more native-sounding names and by applying more often for American citizenship. Higher exposure to radio networks also increased the likelihood that immigrants married US born citizens from US born parents, an equilibrium measure of assimilation. Focusing on names from baseball players, I suggest that role models portrayed on the media are a key mechanism to explain why radio promoted assimilation. |
| April 21, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Diana van Patten (Yale): Title TBA |
| April 21, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Emre Yavuz (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| April 21, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Gokce Gokkoca (Toulouse School of Economics): "Incentives vis-à-vis prescription externalities: The case of antibiotics in France"
Abstract: Recognized as one of the biggest threats to global health, antimicrobial resistance is aggravated by the unnecessary use of antibiotics. As a result, stewardship stands as a crucial channel to preserve the efficacy of available treatments. In France, the introduction of the pay-for-performance (P4P) scheme for physicians in 2012 provides a new tool for addressing the high rate of antibiotic prescriptions as well as the types of antibiotics prescribed (with high/low resistance evolution). Using prescription-level data from 2014 to 2020 from a representative sample of general practitioners, I first show suggestive evidence that physicians respond to financial incentives in their prescriptions. Then, I explore several potential channels giving rise to heterogeneity in the responses of physicians. The next steps include the modelling of physicians' decision making in prescribing antibiotics. The model will exploit the heterogeneity in diseases physicians face and the dynamics generated by the incentive scheme to pin down the trade-offs physicians face in the presence of financial incentives.
Brendon Andrews (Northwestern University): "Title TBA"
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| April 20, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Martina Björkman (Stockholm School of Economics): Title TBA
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| April 20, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Jose Salas (Northwestern University): "Title TBA" |
| April 19, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Brant Callaway (University of Georgia): Title TBA |
| April 18, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Marc Rysman (Boston University): "Branch Location Strategies and Financial Service Access in Thai Banking*" |
| April 18, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Michael Weber (University of Chicago - Booth School): Title TBA
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| April 18, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Diego Huerta (Northwestern University): "A Positive Theory of Dynamic Development Policies" |
| April 15, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | No speaker for this event |
| April 14, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Fred Finan (UC Berkley): “When Democracy Refuses to Die: Evaluating a Training Program for New Politicians” |
| April 14, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Joao Guerreiro (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| April 14, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Eline Schoonjans (Technical University of Munich): "From Cure to Prevention? The Effects of Unionization on Facilities’ Toxic Release Rates"
Abstract: Do unions protect workers from releasing or handling toxic waste? This paper studies the impact of organized labor on toxic release rates at US facilities between 1991 and 2020. Collective Voice theory predicts that unions bargain for worker benefits such as workplace safety. However, their effect on toxic releases is unclear: both handling toxic waste to reduce release rates and exposure to toxic releases can be dangerous and have negative health effects. Using a regression discontinuity design on close-call union elections, we find a significant and positive effect of unionization on toxic release rates (releases/waste). We show that unionization leads to significantly less waste handling, which includes recycling, energy recovery, and treatment. This effect is stronger for on-site waste handling and in states without right-to-work laws, where unions have arguably more bargaining power. Finally, we show that unionized facilities increase waste prevention activities earlier during the production process, but not enough to offset the reduction in later waste handling. |
| April 13, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Paul Rhode (University of Michigan): "The Economic Effects of Slavery: Tests at the Border” |
| April 13, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Sarah Chloe Deschênes (Northwestern University): Expanding access to primary schooling in Nigeria: impact on marital outcomes (with Rozenn Hotte)
Abstract: In West Africa, marriage remains a powerful social institution that is critical to women’s well-being, notably because of a lack of safety nets outside of the family. The literature provides evidence that primary schooling may improve women’s marital outcomes proxied by age at first union, age at first child, and tolerance and experience of domestic violence. Another key aspect of the quality of marriage is the male partner’s support to gender equality, yet little is known about what may shape this support. In this very early stage project, we study whether attending primary school in more gender-diverse cohorts change men’s attitudes towards gender roles and their wife’s marital outcomes in adulthood. We leverage the variation in exposure to more feminine cohorts in schools across local government areas (LGA) induced by Nigeria’s 1976 Universal primary education reform – one of Africa’s largest educational expansion program. The project is at a preliminary stage so the objective of the talk is to discuss the early research ideas. |
| April 13, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Devis Decet (Northwestern University): "National and Subnational Institutions in Africa" |
| April 12, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Robert Moffitt (University of Chicago): Balancing Data Privacy and Usability in the Federal Statistical System.” joint with Charles Manski |
| April 12, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Michael Carlana (Harvard Kennedy School): Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in Schools |
| April 11, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Alex MacKay (Harvard Business School): “Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences”
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| April 11, 202212:15 PM - 1:30 PM | Kellogg Ford Center Political Economy Seminar Series | Speaker: Silvia Vannutelli (Econ): Title TBA
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| April 11, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | David Baqaee (UCLA): "Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks"
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| April 11, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Amilcar Velez (Northwestern University): "IV model with missing values on instrumental variables" |
| April 8, 202212:15 PM - 1:45 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Matteo Magnaricotte (Northwestern University): Persistent Specialization and Growth: The Italian Land Reform (with Riccardo Bianchi Vimercati and Giampaolo Lecce)
Abstract: Land distribution has ambiguous effects on industrialization: large landowners can slow industrialization by reducing the local provision of education, but larger scale and local market power in labor markets might accelerate mechanization of production and reduce agricultural employment. Using a difference-in-differences design and novel data on expropriations, we study the effects of land redistribution following the Italian 1950 land reform. We find that redistribution led to less industrialization, and explain this finding with a reduction in the scale of operations and more intensive use of family labor. We also show that this effect persisted for at least 50 years, consistently with models of intergenerational transmission, which are also supported by survey evidence on father-son occupations. Finally, using newly digitized municipal-level income data, we find that expropriated areas had lower growth in the period 1970-2000. |
| April 7, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Simone Schaner (University of Southern California): “Information, Intermediaries, and International Migration” (with Samuel Bazzi, Lisa Cameron, and Firman Witoelar) |
| April 7, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Oren Levinthal (IDC Herzliya): Title TBA |
| April 7, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Joris Mueller (Northwestern University): Chinese Capital Flight to the U.S. Real Estate Market with Joe Long (Northwestern University)
Abstract: Wealthy foreign real estate buyers have increased rapidly over the past few decades. Of particular note are those from China; in 2016 alone, Chinese buyers were the source of over 100 billion USD of outflows to real estate markets worldwide. In this paper, we investigate the effect that these wealthy Chinese buyers have on local U.S. housing markets, local governments and residents. Using a novel instrument, we demonstrate that an increase in the share of wealthy Chinese buyers in a locality causes an increase in house price growth. As a result of this increased growth, local governments benefit from increased property tax revenues but do not see a drop in sales tax revenues, suggesting that the vacancy rate for Chinese-owned properties is no different from that of counterfactual buyers. A drop in rental prices suggests that wealthy Chinese buyers are more likely to rent out their houses and less likely to move into them. We will first summarize these findings and then present avenues for future research for discussion. |
| April 6, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Matthew D. Bird (Universidad del Pacífico): Effectiveness of Emergency Transfers to Households in Peru During the Pandemic
Abstract: To mitigate the effects of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders, governments around the world provided emergency cash transfers with limited evidence guiding their design but with the expectation that they would reduce economic stress and mobility. Initially envisioned as one-off transfers, many governments extended them for several months and under various schemes. This study uses a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of multiple rounds of transfers targeting poor urban households in Peru (Yo me quedo en casa) between April 2020 and August 2021. By December 2020, three unexpected findings emerged. First, the transfers increased the probability of employment and leaving the home for work during the pandemic, yet no differences in consumption were detected. Second, transfer recipients were more likely to experience COVID-19 infections and mortality, with the latter corroborated by administrative data. Third, beneficiary households reported increased rates of depression and mixed impacts on intimate partner violence. By August 2021, transfer recipients continued to report less employment loss and more female labor participation, but with less total household expenditures. However, by then beneficiaries reported less COVID infections, with no difference in mortality. Given the unintended short-term effects on mobility and mortality, our study raises new questions about the design of emergency transfers. |
| April 6, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Yijun Liu (Northwestern University): "Continuous Time Optimal Delegation" |
| April 4, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Scott Nelson (University of Chicago): Information Design in Consumer Credit Markets
Abstract: Over 30m US adults do not use formal consumer credit. How many of these are inefficiently excluded because they lack a credit history or have a poor credit score? We develop a framework to characterize the efficiency-maximizing system of credit histories and credit scoring, subject to the constraints imposed by the severity of adverse selection, and by the ability of histories to predict future risk. We find US consumer credit features a moderate amount of adverse selection and persistent consumer types. This adverse selection generates substantial welfare loss: roughly 40% of today's non-borrowers would be first-best efficient to lend to. While the US credit scoring system helps alleviate the costs of adverse selection, consumer risk and demand both evolve rapidly enough that the ability of credit histories to reduce information asymmetries is limited. We find that requiring credit histories to be shorter -- or to forget past default sooner -- would have only modest effects on efficiency and would help non-borrowing consumers escape the "no history trap." |
| April 4, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Marios Angeletos (MIT): Title TBA
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| April 4, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Michael Cai (Northwestern University): "Optimal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents:
A Sequence-Space Approach " |
| March 31, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Chang-Tai Hsieh (University of Chicago-Booth): "The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China" |
| March 31, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Santiago Camara (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| March 31, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Davide Coluccia (Northwestern University): "Religiosity and Science: An Oxymoron? Evidence from the Great Influenza Pandemic"
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the Spanish influenza pandemic (1918-20) on religiosity and science. Focusing on the United States during the 1900-1930 period, we define a novel indicator of revealed religiosity that leverages naming patterns of newborn babies and measure scientific progress through the universe of patents granted over this period. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the pandemic, we find that relatively more affected counties become both more religious and more innovative. Moreover, we document that the relationship between religiosity and science changed over time, being negative before 1918, and positive thereafter, a finding at odds with the current literature. We use individual-level data to shed light on the mechanisms. We show that in counties affected by the pandemic: i) individuals in science-related fields, who were less religious before the shock, became even less religious than the rest of the population; ii) pre-existing differences in religiosity increased, leading to a polarization of religious beliefs. |
| March 30, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Gaston Ilanes (Northwestern University): Title TBA
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| March 30, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Jinwook Han (Northwestern University): "Collaboration in Consumer Search" |
| March 29, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Clement de Chaisemartin (Sciences Po): Title TBA |
| March 29, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | David Argente (Penn State): "Consumer Surplus of Alternative Payment Methods: Paying Uber with Cash"
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| March 29, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Economics 501: Graduate Student Seminar | Giovanni Sciacovelli (Northwestern University): "Financial Flows in the Latin Monetary Union: A
Machine Learning Approach" |
| March 28, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | March 28th | Stefan Weiegraeber (Indiana University): Estimating Industry Conduct in Differentiated Products Markets - The Evolution of Pricing Behavior in the RTE Cereal Industry
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| March 28, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Industrial Organization | Stefan Weiegraeber (Indiana University): Estimating Industry Conduct in Differentiated Products Markets - The Evolution of Pricing Behavior in the RTE Cereal Industry
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| March 17, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Santiago Camara (Northwestern University): Title TBA - Cancelled |
| March 17, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Kelly Gail Strada (Northwestern): Title TBA |
| March 11, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Sebastian Ottinger (Northwestern): "The 'Educated American' in the Age of Mass Migration: School Decentralization and Population Heterogeneity" (45 min)
Chris Sims (Northwestern): "Malthusian Dynamics in African Development" (45 min) |
| March 10, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | Arun Chandrasekhar (Stanford University): "Blue Spoon; Sparking Communication About Appropriate Technology Use" |
| March 10, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Fergal Hanks (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| March 10, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Brendan Andrews (Northwestern): Title TBA |
| March 9, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ashley Wong (Northwestern): "Business Collaborations and Female Entrepreneurship"
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| March 8, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Econometrics | Amos Golan (American University): "What Information Theory Brings to Modeling and Inference from Complex Data"
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| March 7, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Economic History | Joseph Zeira (Hebrew University ): “The Israeli Economy: A Story of Success and Costs”
*Joint Seminar with Macroeconomics |
| March 7, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Seminar in Macroeconomics | Joseph Zeira (Hebrew University ): “The Israeli Economy: A Story of Success and Costs”
*Joint Seminar with Economic History |
| March 4, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Philipp Jager (Northwestern): "Can Pensions Save Lives? Evidence from the Introduction of Old-Age Assistance in the UK" (45 min)
Thomas Pellet (Northwestern): "Machine Learning About the Latin Monetary Union" (45 min)
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| March 3, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Seminar in Development Economics | David Atkin (MIT): Title TBA |
| March 3, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Emre Yavuz (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| March 3, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Nicole Ozminkowski (Northwestern): "Quality Signals and patient Demand" |
| March 2, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Eduardo Campillo Betancourt (Northwestern): Title TBA
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| February 25, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Piotr Matusazak (Northwestern): "Deep Roots of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: Evidence from the Partitions of Poland" |
| February 24, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Laura Murphy (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| February 24, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Matteo Magnaricotte (Northwestern): "College Licensing and Reputation Effects on the Labor Market"
ABSTRACT: "In this project, we study the effects of college quality signals on recent graduates' labor market outcomes. Between 2016 and 2021, Peru's government imposed new regulations aimed at shutting down predatory colleges, denying an operational license to 50 universities out of the existing 144. Using a new dataset on labor market outcomes of the 2014-2019 cohorts and taking advantage of the staggered timing of licensing decisions, we produce a preliminary analysis that shows a limited impact of the signals. This suggests that the new signals did not lead to a meaningful update of employers' beliefs. We will discuss our empirical approach and what might have led to the observed results." |
| February 23, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Sean Higgins (Northwestern): Title TBA
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| February 21, 202212:00 PM - 1:00 PM | IPR Colloquium: M. Schnell (IPR/Economics) - The Lasting Impacts of School Shootings | "The Lasting Impacts of School Shootings"
by Molly Schnell, Assistant Professor of Economics and IPR Fellow
This is a presentation of research in progress, and the event is part of the winter 2022 IPR Fay Lomax Cook Colloquium Series.
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| February 18, 202212:00 PM - 1:30 PM | Economic History Lunch Seminar | Lukas Rosenberger (Northwestern): "Human Capital, Ideas, and Economic Growth: Evidence from France in the Enlightenment" (with Uwe Sunde, LMU Munich) |
| February 17, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Xiaojie Liu (Northwestern University): "General Equilibrium Approach to Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty" |
| February 17, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Ola Paluszynska (Northwestern): Title TBA |
| February 16, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Cristina Clerici (Northwestern): Title TBA
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| February 15, 20223:00 PM - 4:30 PM | Joint Seminar in Development & Health/Education/Labor/Public Economics | Kasey Buckles (Notre Dame University): "Family Trees and Falling Apples: Intergenerational Mobility Estimates from U.S. Genealogy Data" |
| February 11, 20223:30 PM - 5:00 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar -- Ravi Jagadeesan, Harvard University | The Department of Economics is hosting Junior Faculty Recruitment candidates in January and February. Each candidate is asked to present a seminar on their work to faculty.
This event is closed to Economics faculty for the in-person portion. Current graduate students in the Department of Economics will be sent a Zoom link. |
| February 10, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Macroeconomics Lunch Seminar | Carl Hallmann (Northwestern University): Title TBA |
| February 10, 202211:00 AM - 12:00 PM | Applied Microeconomics Lunch Seminar | Marie Decamps (Northwestern): "Agriculture Productivity and Deforestation" |
| February 9, 202212:30 PM - 1:30 PM | Development Economics Lunch Seminar | Ryu Matsuura (Northwestern): Title TBA
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| February 8, 202211:00 AM - 12:30 PM | Junior Recruitment Seminar -- Amanda Dahlstrand, London School of Economics | The Department of Economics is hosting Junior Faculty Recruitment candidates in January and February. Each candidate is asked to present a seminar on their work to faculty.
This event is closed to Economics faculty for the in-person portion. Current graduate students in the Department of Economics will be sent a Zoom link. |
